At a Glance
- Costs in flux: European road freight rates are declining, but diesel (+4.8%) and a shortage of 426,000 drivers maintain structural pressure.
- Stable volumes, no boom: maritime trade slows to +0.5%, air freight remains solid driven by e-commerce.
- Carbon = business constraint: the EU mandates carbon neutrality for shipping by 2050 and harmonises emissions calculation with CountEmissionsEU.
- AI and automation: Gartner and DHL confirm the rise of intelligent planning, real-time visibility and predictive analytics.
- Consolidation: DSV acquires DB Schenker, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launch the Gemini alliance.
- Energy transition: heavy-duty electric vehicles are gaining ground, but the mix will remain hybrid for several years.
Introduction
2025 marks a turning point for transport and logistics. The market is no longer in crisis mode — it is in transformation mode. Volumes are holding, costs are shifting, carbon pressure is accelerating and major players are investing heavily in automation, artificial intelligence and consolidation.
The picture is clear: companies are no longer seeking maximum capacity, but resilience, visibility and granular flow optimisation. It is precisely in this context that tools like OCTAVE-ENGINE come into their own — enabling the optimisation of every route, every kilometre, every euro spent.
Here are the six major trends to remember.
1. Logistics Costs: the Pressure Shifts, It Does Not Disappear
On the road, European freight rates declined at the start of the year. According to the IRU (International Road Transport Union), the contract rate index fell to 131.1 in the first quarter of 2025, and the spot index to 134.1 — a sign of easing compared to 2024.
But this respite remains fragile:
- Diesel rose by 4.8% in a single quarter
- Europe faces a shortfall of 426,000 drivers, a structural shortage weighing on capacity
On the maritime side, the slowdown is even more pronounced. According to UNCTAD, global maritime trade growth is expected to reach just +0.5% in 2025, compared with 2.2% in 2024. The challenge is no longer just cost — it is the predictability of flows.
In an environment where every kilometre costs more and every driver is a scarce resource, route optimisation is no longer a luxury — it is an operational necessity. OCTAVE-ENGINE can reduce kilometres driven by up to 30% by automatically optimising routes.
2. Volumes: Stable Demand but No Boom
The market is emerging from an exceptional period (COVID + supply chain tensions) and entering a normalisation phase. Volumes are not collapsing, but growth is moderate.
In air freight, demand remains broadly solid. According to IATA, it is driven by:
- E-commerce, which continues to grow
- Asia-Europe flows, structurally significant
- High-value products, which prioritise speed
The trend: moderate but structurally robust growth, requiring finer flow management rather than a race for capacity.
3. Carbon: Decarbonisation Becomes a Business Constraint
Regulatory pressure is intensifying sharply in Europe. The European Union set several major milestones in 2025:
- A landmark agreement setting the goal of carbon neutrality for maritime transport by 2050
- The harmonisation of emissions calculation through the CountEmissionsEU regulation, standardising measurement across the EU
- A report from the European Environment Agency (EEA) confirming that transport remains one of the highest CO₂-emitting sectors
Carbon is no longer a CSR topic — it is an operational and commercial criterion. Shippers increasingly demand visibility over the carbon footprint of their flows.
Every unnecessary kilometre is a kilometre of CO₂ emitted for nothing. By optimising routes with OCTAVE-ENGINE, companies mechanically reduce their carbon footprint — a powerful argument for CSR reports and tenders.
4. Technology: Automation, AI and Real-Time Visibility
Technology investment is accelerating across the supply chain. According to Gartner, the major trends in 2025 include:
- Artificial intelligence for logistics planning
- Real-time visibility over flows
- Automation of logistics decisions
DHL confirms this trend with the rise of:
- Robotics in warehouses
- Digital twins for flow simulation
- Predictive analytics to anticipate disruptions
The message is clear: the market is shifting towards data-driven logistics. Companies that do not automate their planning are falling behind.
OCTAVE-ENGINE fits squarely into this trend: an optimisation algorithm that transforms your data (stops, constraints, costs) into optimal route plans — in seconds, not hours.
5. Energy Transition: Electrification and Alternatives
Road transport is gradually moving towards more sustainable solutions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), heavy-duty electric vehicles are advancing rapidly in certain segments, even though adoption remains limited on a global scale.
The transport energy mix will remain hybrid for several years:
- Optimised diesel — still dominant, but under pressure
- Electric — growing strongly for urban and peri-urban distribution
- Hydrogen — still emerging, promising for long-haul
Regardless of the powertrain, route optimisation remains the number one lever for reducing consumption. An electric truck with a poor route wastes energy — just like a diesel one. OCTAVE-ENGINE optimises routes regardless of vehicle type.
6. Market Consolidation: Ever More Powerful Giants
The sector is experiencing an unprecedented wave of consolidation.
The major event of 2025: the acquisition of DB Schenker by DSV, propelling the Danish group among the world’s top logistics providers.
In maritime shipping, alliances are being restructured with the launch of the Gemini cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. Maersk anticipates increased capacity on the market, with margins under pressure across the sector.
The market is structuring around large integrated players, capable of offering end-to-end solutions. For mid-sized companies, the key is to compensate through operational efficiency what they cannot gain in scale.
Key Takeaways
2025 will have been the year of recomposition. Transport and logistics are no longer a simple support function — they have become a strategic lever for companies that want to remain competitive.
The key lessons:
- Costs are declining in places, but structural pressure remains strong (diesel, driver shortage, maritime volatility)
- Carbon has become an operational criterion, not just a regulatory one
- AI and automation are no longer optional — they have become the standard for logistics planning
- Market consolidation is accelerating, pushing every player to maximise efficiency
- Flow optimisation is the common denominator across all these trends
What About 2026?
The signals are clear: 2026 will be the year of execution. Technologies are mature, regulations are in place, players are positioned. The question is no longer whether to optimise, but how to do it concretely.
Companies that have invested in route optimisation, flow visibility and carbon footprint reduction will be the ones that gain the edge.
Want to optimise your logistics routes and reduce your transport costs today? Contact the OCTAVE-ENGINE team for a personalised demonstration and discover how our solution can transform your day-to-day logistics.